Antibiotic Resistance Will Kill 300 Million People by 2050
New report says pharma companies make more money from other drugs, so shy away from new antibiotic development
The true cost of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) will be 300 million premature deaths and up to $100 trillion (£64 trillion) lost to the global economy by 2050. This scenario is set out in a new report which looks to a future where drug resistance is not tackled between now and 2050.
The report predicts that the world’s GDP would be 0.5% smaller by 2020 and 1.4% smaller by 2030 with over 100 million premature deaths. The Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, chaired by Jim O’Neill, is significant in that it is a global review that seeks to quantify financial costs.
This issue goes beyond health policy and, on a strictly macroeconomic basis, it makes sense for governments to act now, the report argues. "One of the things that has been lacking is putting some pound signs in front of this problem," says Michael Head at the Farr institute, University College London, UK, who sees hope in how a response to HIV came about. "The world was slow to respond [to HIV], but when the costs were calculated the world leapt into action."
He recently totted up R&D for infectious diseases in the UK and found gross underinvestment in antibacterial research: £102 million compared to a total of £2.6 billion. Other research shows that less than 1% of available research funds in the UK and Europe were spent on antibiotic research in 2008–2013.
Bleak future
RAND Europe and KPMG both assessed the future impact of AMR. They looked at a subset of drug resistant pathogens and the public health issues surrounding them for Klebsiella pneumonia, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, HIV, tuberculosis and malaria. The RAND Europe scenario modelled what would happen if antimicrobial drug resistance rates rose to 100% after 15 years, while infection rates held steady. The KPMG scenario looked at resistance rising to 40% from today’s levels and the number of infections doubling. Malaria resistance results in the greatest number of fatalities, while E. coli resistance accounts for almost half the total economic impact as it is so widespread and its incidence is so high.
"You can look at antibiotic resistance as a slow moving global train wreck, which will happen over the next 35 years," says health law expert Kevin Outterson at Boston University, US. "If we do nothing, this report shows us the likely magnitude of the costs."
Outterson headed up a recent Chatham House report on new business models for antibiotics that highlighted the problem of inadequate market incentives. "If I came out with a new cardiovascular drug, it could be worth tens of billions of dollars a year," he says. "But if we had the same innovative product as an antibiotic, we would save it for the sickest and it would sell modestly in the first decade. So market uptake is extraordinarily limited for innovative antibiotics and all for excellent public health reasons."
